The National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission (NEURC) has approved the 2020 Production Conformity Assessment Report, developed by NPC Ukrenergo, the press service reports.
The document was formed based on modelling and analysis of several scenarios for the development of the energy and economy of Ukraine.
According to the report, the target scenario for the development of generating capacities of the Ukrainian energy system takes into account the current trends in the field of energy-saving and provides for a further increase in the percentage of all types of renewable energy sources in the structure of electricity production within 10-11 years.
Thuswise, in 2020 it doubled compared to the previous year (from 3.5% in 2019 to 7.39% in 2020). In the next three years (2021-2023), the upward trend should continue, although it is predicted that its pace will be much slower (a decrease in the rate from 16% in 2022 to 2.4 in 2031).
In the future, renewable energy sources should partially replace electricity produced by coal-fired thermal power plants; according to the forecast, by 2031, they will reduce their electricity production by almost 12%.
The implementation of such a scenario for the development of renewable energy sources in Ukraine requires an increase in the flexibility of the energy system. To do so, in the near future it is necessary to build:
- at least 1 GW of highly manoeuvrable capacities with a quick start (full activation from a stopped state – no more than 15 minutes, the ability to start and stop at least four times a day with a control range of at least 80% of the installed capacity). At the same time, to maximize the production of electricity from renewable energy sources and, accordingly, to minimize its limitations, it is advisable to build at least 2 GW of highly manoeuvrable capacities;
- 0.5 GW of energy storage systems, subject to the involvement of renewable energy sources in balancing the energy system and providing reserves. Without the involvement of renewable energy sources in balancing or forced limitation of NPP capacities, the need for energy storage can grow to 2 GW.
Also, to implement the target scenario for the development of generating capacities, it is necessary to ensure the constantly available operating capacity of TPPs until 2031, which today are the main type of generation for balancing the power system, at a level of at least 12 GW. This can be done by reconstructing coal-fired TPPs and introducing measures to reduce harmful emissions. One of the ways to solve this problem may be the urgent reconstruction of TPP power units or the new construction of 1.2-1.5 GW of intermediate capacity.
The Report also recommends providing state support for renewables through holding auctions for the distribution of support quotas only after resolving the issue of lifting restrictions to ensure the operational safety of the energy system. And to oblige investors of new renewable facilities to install energy storage or other types of compensating capacities with a volume of 20% of the installed capacity when setting support quotas.
“If these measures are not immediately implemented, then to the current problems with the inconsistency of generating capacities, according to the results of the assessment under the baseline scenario, from 2025 there will be a problem of insufficient generating capacities,” the message says.
To date, Ukrenergo has formed and provided the Ministry of Energy with technical requirements for holding a tender for the construction of the first 500 MW of highly mobile generation, and the Transmission System Development Plan for a 10-year period defines the volumes and places of their connection for new highly mobile generation and energy storage.
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