How will the price of gas change and what should Ukraine expect

Despite the drop in oil prices by more than 2 times, the decrease in the cost of natural gas on the exchanges, although it is happening, is not at such a high rate. Firstly there was even a slight increase of 3-5%, but now the price on the world market has fallen by almost 15%.

CEO of the independent energy provider ETG.UA Volodymyr Shvedky told about it in the comment for Kosatka.Media.

According to him, the cost of the fuel for industrial consumers in April in the Ukrainian market will be at the level of March (UAH 4300-4500 per thousand cubic meters including VAT). We will not feel a reduction in prices due to the devaluation of the national currency by more than 15%.

Due to the spread of the coronavirus and a drop in industrial production, oil demand has declined, and OPEC member countries intend to introduce additional production restrictions in early March in order to maintain current prices. However, Russia did not agree to the proposed conditions, which was the reason for the record decline in oil prices.

At the same time, these events did not affect the price of gas to the extent that it was commonly believed before.

“Previously, the price of gas depended on the price of oil. But over the past two weeks, the market has shown complete detachment from the impact of oil quotations on the price of natural gas, which is quite remarkable. However, although gas has already significantly fallen in price in the short term, in the 2-3 quarter we still expect the price to go down by another 10-20%, or even more from the current value. But this drop will not depend on the price of oil. Rather, on coronavirus and its impact on world industry”, said Shvedky.

According to the expert, the market will continue to be in a fever for some time from an unpredictable drop in demand, a halt in production, and a decrease in consumption by large industrial groups. The reason is the coronavirus and the preventive measures that are associated with it – this factor will affect the price reduction in the future.

Following the results of winter, a significant decrease in gas consumption in Ukraine was observed. During this period, the population used 20-25%, and industry - 13-15% less gas than last year. Fuel was scarce, and storage facilities remained full. Therefore, in the coming months, a drop or even complete absence of natural gas imports is expected, which may allow Ukraine to abandon binding to import parity.

Tags: gas, oil, UGSF, heating season, Gas market, price

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