IHS Markit predicts 158 GW of new photovoltaic systems will be installed in the world next year, Renen says. This figure is 34% more than expected for the current year (118 GW). According to analysts, in 2021 the photovoltaic industry will begin "explosive growth".
“When many PV markets began to recover in the middle of the year after local restrictions, the rise in module prices amazed developers,” said IHS Markit analyst Josefin Berg. As a result, some developers decided to postpone the acquisition of modules and postpone the completion of projects until 2021.
The explosive growth of the market over the next year will be driven by these delayed projects, coupled with increased interest in renewable energy sources worldwide.
IHS Markit expects material prices to remain high in the first half of next year, but then begin to decline.
“As soon as prices start to fall, buyers who can wait will rush to buy modules,” says Berg.
IHS expects China and the United States to continue to dominate the global solar industry. These two countries will account for more than half of the world's installations.
IHS predicts that India will regain its position as the third largest solar market, although this may not be the case if high module prices persist in the second half of 2021. Australia should overtake Japan to become the fourth largest in the world, while Spain will overtake Germany to become the largest PV market in Europe.
Analysts also point out that Colombia, Peru, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Zambia, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia could be significant players next year.